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“Climate change happens 20% faster in the Mediterranean”

Philippe Drobinski
Philippe Drobinski
CNRS Research Director at the Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory (LMD) and Professor at Ecole Polytechnique (IP Paris)

Along with the polar regions, the Mediter­ranean basin is one of the loca­tions in the world most impact­ed by the effects of cli­mate change. Tem­per­a­tures there are ris­ing 20% faster than else­where; already 1.5°C high­er than pre-indus­tri­al tem­per­a­tures. For every 1°C increase, there is a ~4% rise in rain­fall. This shift is lead­ing to a para­dox­i­cal effect on cli­mate, char­ac­terised by more extreme pre­cip­i­ta­tion and much longer peri­ods of dry spells and droughts – with 10–30% less sum­mer rainfall. 

Pro­jec­tions show that in the worst-case sce­nario, tem­per­a­tures could rise as much as a fur­ther 6.5°C by the end of the cen­tu­ry. Sea lev­el has risen by 6 cm over the past 20 years and is expect­ed to upsurge by anoth­er 90 cm between now and 2100, and obser­va­tions of the Mediter­ranean Sea show increas­es in salin­i­ty and acid­i­fi­ca­tion. Not to men­tion the pres­ence of inva­sive species both on land and in the sea, with reper­cus­sions on local biodiversity. 

Hence, now is the time for proac­tive solu­tions mov­ing for­ward in region. In Novem­ber 2020, the inde­pen­dent net­work of Mediter­ranean Experts on Cli­mate and envi­ron­men­tal Change (MedECC), found­ed in 2015, pub­lished the report, “Cli­mate and Envi­ron­men­tal Change in the Mediter­ranean Basin Cur­rent Sit­u­a­tion and Risks for the Future 1st Mediter­ranean Assess­ment Report1. MedECC com­bines efforts from 190 experts such as myself from 43 coun­tries in the EU, North Africa and Mid­dle East. Referred to as MAR1, the report out­lines cli­mate and envi­ron­men­tal issues spe­cif­ic to the Mediter­ranean and what to expect in the com­ing years. 

Mediterranean energy transition 

In the chap­ter of MAR1 on the ener­gy tran­si­tion, which I coor­di­nat­ed through the Energy4Climate inter­dis­ci­pli­nary Cen­tre 2 and Insti­tut Pierre Simon Laplace 3, we show that the Mediter­ranean region is respon­si­ble for only a com­par­a­tive­ly small share of glob­al green­house gas emis­sions – as lit­tle as 6%. Nonethe­less, the region is great­ly affect­ed by their effects.

Cli­mate change in the Mediter­ranean is expect­ed to affect ener­gy pro­duc­tion (due to impacts on resources and infra­struc­ture) and ener­gy use (by decreased heat­ing demand and increased cool­ing needs). We expect fos­sil fuels to remain the main source of ener­gy until 2040, which will grad­u­al­ly be phased out by oth­er tech­nolo­gies. The fig­ures show that the share of renew­able ener­gy will triple to reach as much as 27% of the over­all mix. A fac­tor to con­sid­er is that warm­ing in the region is actu­al­ly expect­ed to result in loss­es in renew­able ener­gy pro­duc­tion. The impact of such will be mar­gin­al if glob­al warm­ing does not exceed 2°C, how­ev­er it will dras­ti­cal­ly dete­ri­o­rate if tem­per­a­tures rise beyond 2°C. 

Tra­di­tion­al hydropow­er and ther­mo­elec­tric pow­er capac­i­ty is expect­ed to decline due to decreased stream­flow and increased water tem­per­a­ture – sea sur­face tem­per­a­ture could increase by anoth­er 1–4°C by the end of the cen­tu­ry. Nonethe­less, by fur­ther improv­ing ener­gy effi­cien­cy and deploy­ing renew­able ener­gies on a large scale, the entire Mediter­ranean region can reduce ten­sions over ener­gy secu­ri­ty for import­ing coun­tries, improve oppor­tu­ni­ties for export­ing coun­tries and reduce costs of ener­gy and envi­ron­men­tal dam­age for the whole region. 

To be suc­cess­ful in its large-scale ener­gy tran­si­tion, the region will need more inclu­sive ener­gy poli­cies that will undoubt­ed­ly pass by a more col­lab­o­ra­tive approach from the coun­tries con­cerned. Even though the shift is not a giv­en, there is great poten­tial for clean pow­er in the region, par­tic­u­lar­ly solar. There are already region­al col­lab­o­ra­tions on the go, which are help­ing to facil­i­tate this move­ment across coun­tries and states in the area. These include ener­gy mar­ket reg­u­la­tors like MEDREG and MEDSO, or MEDENER an agency focused on envi­ron­men­tal and ener­gy poli­cies on both sides of the Mediterranean. 

Efforts like these will hope­ful­ly encour­age coun­tries to suc­cess­ful­ly move away from fos­sil fuels to the ben­e­fit of the envi­ron­ment. More­over, poli­cies and action should also cre­ate jobs and improve the social well-being for the population.

Improv­ing ener­gy effi­cien­cy and deploy­ing renew­able ener­gy on a large scale will there­fore become necessary.

Changing local practises

Above the fact that the geo­graph­i­cal posi­tion of the zone is an ampli­fi­er of glob­al warm­ing mak­ing the zone a “hot spot”, the MAR1 report also talks about oth­er prob­lems spe­cif­ic to the Mediter­ranean. At sea, the con­se­quences of rapid region­al cli­mate change are the increas­ing acid­i­fi­ca­tion of sea­wa­ter and the rise in aver­age sea lev­el. On land, there is an increase in dura­tion and ampli­tude of heat waves and a decrease in sum­mer pre­cip­i­ta­tion in some regions, result­ing in increased water short­ages and desertification. 

Fac­tors of change also include pop­u­la­tion growth, pol­lu­tion of the air, soils, rivers and oceans, unsus­tain­able land and sea use prac­tices. Com­bined, these effects have numer­ous con­se­quences such as degra­da­tion of nat­ur­al resources, reduc­ing the avail­abil­i­ty of fresh water, ther­mal com­fort, and increas­ing risks to human health. Those par­tic­u­lar­ly affect­ed will be dis­ad­van­taged and vul­ner­a­ble pop­u­la­tions. Con­flicts caused by resource scarci­ty and human migra­tion are like­ly to increase due to drought and the dete­ri­o­ra­tion of agri­cul­tur­al and fish­ery resources, but socio-eco­nom­ic and polit­i­cal fac­tors are like­ly to still play a major role.

As such, MAR1 sets the ground­work for the region to start think­ing about the answers to the big ques­tions yet to come: how can the region adapt to the chang­ing cli­mate? What infor­ma­tion will help sup­port future poli­cies? Can the Mediter­ranean be more sustainable?

MAR1: the COP of the Mediterranean

The report was estab­lished in the same way that the Inter­gov­ern­men­tal Pan­el for Cli­mate Change (IPCC) wrote their five assess­ment reports between 1990 and 2013, the lat­est sup­port­ing the nego­ti­a­tions that led to the Paris Agree­ment in 2015 4. As for IPCC, MedECC pro­vides an assess­ment that pro­vides infor­ma­tion rel­e­vant to pol­i­cy mak­ers, how­ev­er is not pre­scrip­tive and does not pro­vide rec­om­men­da­tions to deci­sion mak­ers on what to do. More­over, the focus of the MAR1 is on adap­ta­tion to cli­mate change rather than mit­i­ga­tion as the lat­ter must be addressed on a glob­al scale.

As a col­lec­tive, MedECC were award­ed the North-South Prize by the Coun­cil of Europe 5. It is a prize that most notably rewards peo­ple for their efforts in human rights pro­tec­tion – a Euro­pean ver­sion of the Nobel Peace Prize, one could say. This year was one of the rare occa­sions it was award­ed to a group instead of indi­vid­ual people.

1https://​www​.medecc​.org/​f​i​r​s​t​-​m​e​d​i​t​e​r​r​a​n​e​a​n​-​a​s​s​e​s​s​m​e​n​t​-​r​e​p​o​r​t​-​mar1/
2https://​www​.e4c​.ip​-paris​.fr/​#​/​a​b​o​u​t​/​press
3https://​www​.ipsl​.fr/​f​r​/​A​c​t​u​a​l​i​t​e​s​/​A​c​t​u​a​l​i​t​e​s​-​s​c​i​e​n​t​i​f​i​q​u​e​s​/​M​e​d​E​C​C​-​P​r​i​x​-​N​o​r​d​-​S​u​d​-​2​0​2​0​-​d​u​-​C​o​n​s​e​i​l​-​d​e​-​l​-​E​urope
4https://​www​.ipcc​.ch
5https://​www​.coe​.int/​e​n​/​w​e​b​/​p​o​r​t​a​l​/​-​/​2​0​2​0​-​n​o​r​t​h​-​s​o​u​t​h​-​p​r​i​z​e​-​f​o​c​u​s​e​s​-​o​n​-​r​i​g​h​t​-​t​o​-​l​i​f​e​-​a​n​d​-​c​l​i​m​a​t​e​-​c​hange

Contributors

Philippe Drobinski

Philippe Drobinski

CNRS Research Director at the Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory (LMD) and Professor at Ecole Polytechnique (IP Paris)

Philippe Drobinski's research focuses on regional climate variability and trends in the Euro-Mediterranean region with a particular interest in water and energy resources. Since 2019, he is the founding director of the interdisciplinary centre Energy4Climate, aiming to address the systemic complexity of the energy transition.
*A joint research unit CNRS, École Polytechnique - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ENS, Sorbonne Université

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