Lecturer at Mines Paris - PSL & at the MIE department of École Polytechnique (IP Paris)
Orso Roger
Research Engineer at Institut des Hautes Etudes pour l'Innovation et l'Entrepreneuriat (IHEIE/PSL)
Liliana Doganova
Researcher at Centre de Sociologie de l'Innovation at Ecole des Mines de Paris
Key takeaways
Foresight is a set of practices designed to prepare for present action by thinking about the future.
Foresight is concerned with different types of future: possible, plausible, probable and desirable (or desirable) futures.
Foresight approaches draw on a wide range of methods and practices that can be predictive, exploratory or prescriptive.
There are several complementary foresight methods (creativity, interaction, expertise and evidence) and their use depends on the context and the objective.
Lecturer at Mines Paris - PSL & at the MIE department of École Polytechnique (IP Paris)
Orso Roger
Research Engineer at Institut des Hautes Etudes pour l'Innovation et l'Entrepreneuriat (IHEIE/PSL)
Liliana Doganova
Researcher at Centre de Sociologie de l'Innovation at Ecole des Mines de Paris
Key takeaways
The scenario method is a planning tool that can be used to design long-term objectives while the future remains undecided and uncertain.
There are three main categories of scenario: predictive scenarios, exploratory scenarios, and normative scenarios.
Scenario design is based on four distinct stages: construction of the basis, development of images of future situations, verification of the quality of the scenarios produced, and study of the consequences of these scenarios.
There are three main scenario methods: Intuitive Logics, Probabilistic Modified Trends and Foresight.
In visual health, the major trends and weak signals are grouped into 4 areas: demand, healthcare regulators, supply, and the business ecosystem.
For each of these areas, the micro-scenarios produced represent all possible futures.
These prospective scenarios use morphological analysis: the framework of each scenario is a combination of hypotheses on the evolution of system variables.
Three scenarios have been developed for visual health: a highly stratified market; visual health seen as a service; and prevention.
The foresight approach helps R&D teams to think differently to ensure that product development will meet needs.
Lecturer at Mines Paris - PSL & at the MIE department of École Polytechnique (IP Paris)
Orso Roger
Research Engineer at Institut des Hautes Etudes pour l'Innovation et l'Entrepreneuriat (IHEIE/PSL)
Liliana Doganova
Researcher at Centre de Sociologie de l'Innovation at Ecole des Mines de Paris
Key takeaways
In 1973, the world economy was shaken by an oil crisis. However, Shell, a major oil company, seemed to have anticipated it.
In 1965, Shell set up a new planning activity to think about the long term. This activity was based on the scenario method developed by Herman Khan at the RAND Corporation.
At Shell, the aim of scenario planning was not to predict the future but to modify the mental model of decision-makers faced with an uncertain future.
The success of scenario planning depends on its integration into organisational processes and routines (strategy, innovation, risk management, etc.).
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